FPL fixture difficulty, priced by the market
FPL’s own difficulty rating is set before the season and barely moves. This ticker rates the next gameweek from live match prices — the sharpest forecast there is, team news included — and the weeks beyond it from each club’s underlying numbers for last season, clearly labelled apart. 1 is easiest, 5 is hardest; doubles show two fixtures in one cell, blanks show none.
| Team | GW1prior xG | GW2prior xG | GW3prior xG | GW4prior xG | GW5prior xG | GW6prior xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARS | COV (H) | AVL (A) | CHE (H) | SUN (A) | BHA (A) | LEE (H) |
| MCI | BOU (H) | CRY (A) | COV (H) | MUN (A) | SUN (H) | LIV (A) |
| NEW | LIV (H) | TOT (A) | BOU (H) | LEE (A) | HUL (H) | COV (A) |
| MUN | HUL (A) | IPS (H) | EVE (A) | MCI (H) | FUL (A) | TOT (H) |
| BRE | TOT (H) | LEE (A) | SUN (H) | BOU (A) | CHE (H) | AVL (A) |
| CHE | FUL (A) | BHA (H) | ARS (A) | HUL (H) | BRE (A) | BOU (H) |
| CRY | EVE (A) | MCI (H) | FUL (A) | IPS (H) | LEE (A) | NFO (H) |
| BHA | AVL (H) | CHE (A) | LEE (H) | COV (A) | ARS (H) | SUN (A) |
| LIV | NEW (A) | NFO (H) | IPS (A) | FUL (H) | BOU (A) | MCI (H) |
| EVE | CRY (H) | BOU (A) | MUN (H) | TOT (A) | IPS (H) | HUL (A) |
| AVL | BHA (A) | ARS (H) | HUL (A) | NFO (H) | TOT (A) | BRE (H) |
| FUL | CHE (H) | SUN (A) | CRY (H) | LIV (A) | MUN (H) | IPS (A) |
| NFO | LEE (H) | LIV (A) | TOT (H) | AVL (A) | COV (H) | CRY (A) |
| LEE | NFO (A) | BRE (H) | BHA (A) | NEW (H) | CRY (H) | ARS (A) |
| BOU | MCI (A) | EVE (H) | NEW (A) | BRE (H) | LIV (H) | CHE (A) |
| TOT | BRE (A) | NEW (H) | NFO (A) | EVE (H) | AVL (H) | MUN (A) |
| SUN | IPS (A) | FUL (H) | BRE (A) | ARS (H) | MCI (A) | BHA (H) |
| COV | ARS (A) | HUL (H) | MCI (A) | BHA (H) | NFO (A) | NEW (H) |
| HUL | MUN (H) | COV (A) | AVL (H) | CHE (A) | NEW (A) | EVE (H) |
| IPS | SUN (H) | MUN (A) | LIV (H) | CRY (A) | EVE (A) | FUL (H) |
No market snapshot is frozen for the next gameweek yet, so every column — including the first — is rated from last season’s numbers for now.
How the rating is made
Every fixture is reduced to two numbers: how many goals a team is expected to score, and how many it is expected to concede. For the next gameweek those come from de-vigged match prices, fitted by the same goal model that powers the captain coupon. For later gameweeks — which the market does not price yet — they come from last season’s attacking and defensive record, adjusted for venue. The difficulty rating is the gap between the two numbers, bucketed one to five. Hover any cell for the underlying figures.
Behind the number: what fixture difficulty really measures · how double gameweeks work