FPL guides: captaincy, fixtures and the market

Everything on this site runs off one idea — the match prices already contain the sharpest read on this weekend. These guides explain the numbers the tools produce, and how to use each one without fooling yourself.

• Why the market picks a better captain than form does
  The method behind the whole site: de-vigged match prices, a goal model, expected points.
• How to pick your FPL captain, explained simply
  The plain-English version — what doubles, why fixture beats form, floor versus ceiling.
• What a clean-sheet probability actually tells you
  Turning “good fixture for defenders” into a number you can weigh and compare.
• What FPL fixture difficulty really measures
  Why a rating derived from match prices beats a 1–5 badge set before the season.
• Double gameweeks: how they work and how to plan
  Two fixtures, one deadline — when doubles happen, and what they mean for chips.
• How to find differentials the crowd hasn't spotted
  Low ownership only helps when the market actually rates the player.
• Is the minus-4 worth it? A simple way to decide
  The arithmetic of a points hit, without the folklore.
• The best wildcard squad, priced by the market
  Why an optimiser beats eyeballing fifteen names into a budget.

Prefer to start with the tools? The captain coupon, the fixture difficulty ticker and the defensive contributions tracker each link back to the guide that explains them.